Operating case study · Against the market
Village communities, Arizona · January 2024 to August 2026
Full through the biggest delivery cycle Phoenix has ever had.
Phoenix added more than 63,000 apartments in four years, nearly 40,000 of them in 2024 and 2025, and market occupancy sat at 93 percent for stabilized properties and under 89 percent once lease-ups are counted. This is what Stellar’s build-to-rent communities did over the same months, set against the published figures.
The starting position
From 2022 on, Phoenix was one of the most heavily supplied apartment markets in the country. Yardi Matrix counts more than 63,000 units delivered in the four years to mid-2026, with nearly 40,000 of those arriving in 2024 and 2025, and another 25,000 under construction in 2026. Rents fell for most of that stretch: advertised asking rents were down 3.1 percent year over year in April 2025 and 2.7 percent in April 2026. Occupancy in stabilized properties drifted from 93.4 percent in March 2024 to 93.0 percent in March 2025 and stayed there a year later; CoStar’s all-property vacancy, which includes buildings still leasing up, went from under 10 percent at the end of 2023 to 12.6 percent at the end of 2025.
Stellar’s Village communities sit in the middle of that supply, in the West Valley, the far Southeast Valley and North Phoenix, where much of it landed. In January 2024 three Villages were stabilized and four were filling. Over the next thirty-two months eight more opened.
What the market was telling us
In a market delivering that much, the two numbers that separate one operator from another are whether the finished communities stay full while everything around them offers a free month, and whether the communities still filling take their share of the renters who are moving. A stabilized building sliding from 95 to 91 percent in a supply wave looks like the market; one that holds does not.
So the record here is the month-end occupancy of every Village that had reached stabilization, three communities in January 2024 and nine by August 2026, set against the published market rate for the same months, and the net change in occupied Village homes set against the metro’s published net absorption.
What changed
During the period under Stellar’s management the stabilized Villages averaged 93.9 percent occupied in 2024, 93.0 percent in 2025 and 94.7 percent in the first eight months of 2026, against a Phoenix stabilized rate that Yardi Matrix put at 93.4, 93.2, 93.0 and 93.0 percent at the four points it published across the period. In 2025, the heaviest delivery year, the Villages ran at the market. In 2026 they pulled ahead of it: 95.0 percent in March against the market’s 93.0, and 95.1 percent in August. Against CoStar’s all-property figure, which fell from about 90 percent occupied at the end of 2023 to 87.4 percent at the end of 2025 and 88.7 percent in mid-2026, the gap widened from about four points to six or seven.
The filling communities took more than their share. Between December 2025 and June 2026 the Villages added 464 occupied homes. CoStar counted 9,414 units of net absorption across the whole Phoenix metro in the same six months, so the Villages accounted for roughly one in twenty of the renters the market absorbed, from communities that are less than 1 percent of the metro’s apartment stock as Yardi Matrix counts it. The share was not a one-off: the Villages added 495 occupied homes in 2024 against CoStar’s 15,157 for the metro, about 3.3 percent, and 356 in 2025 against 11,465, about 3.1 percent, with fewer communities open in each of those years.
The result
- Stabilized Villages 94.7 percent occupied, January to August 2026, against 93.0 percent for Phoenix stabilized properties (Yardi Matrix, March 2026) and 88.3 to 88.7 percent for all Phoenix properties (CoStar, Q1 and Q2 2026).
- Never below 90.7 percent in any of the 32 months, and between 92 and 96 percent in 31 of them, while nearly 40,000 apartments delivered across the metro in 2024 and 2025.
- About 5 percent of Phoenix’s first-half 2026 net absorption: 464 occupied Village homes added against 9,414 units metro-wide, from under 1 percent of the stock; about 3 percent in each of 2024 and 2025.
- Stabilized communities from three to nine over the period, each one added to the group only once it had reached 90 percent, and the group’s occupancy held as it grew.
Stabilized Village occupancy against published Phoenix occupancy, by month
Stellar line: month-end occupancy of every Village community that had reached 90 percent occupied, from property management system records; the group grows from three communities (527 homes) in January 2024 to nine (1,791 homes) in August 2026. Yardi Matrix points are the Phoenix occupancy rate in stabilized properties as published in its January 2025, June 2025 and June 2026 Phoenix reports (93.4 percent March 2024, 93.2 October 2024, 93.0 March 2025, 93.0 March 2026). CoStar points are 100 minus the Phoenix all-property vacancy rate as published in Kidder Mathews’ quarterly Phoenix multifamily reports: 9.8 percent Q4 2023 and 10.2 percent Q3 2024 (Q4 2024 report), 11.8 percent Q4 2024, 12.1 percent Q3 2025 and 12.6 percent Q4 2025 (Q4 2025 report), 11.7 percent Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 and 11.3 percent Q2 2026 (Q2 2026 report). CoStar revises prior quarters, so each figure is taken from the most recent report that publishes it. Definitions differ between sources and from Stellar’s; the lines are shown for context, not as a like-for-like index.
| Period | Stabilized Villages, average occupancy | Lowest month | Phoenix stabilized properties (Yardi Matrix) | Phoenix all properties (CoStar) | Metro deliveries (Yardi Matrix) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 93.9% | 92.5% | 93.4% (Mar), 93.2% (Oct) | 89.8% (Q3), 88.2% (Q4) | 15,703 units through November |
| 2025 | 93.0% | 90.7% | 93.0% (Mar) | 88.3% (Q2), 87.4% (Q4) | Nearly 40,000 across 2024 and 2025 |
| 2026 (Jan to Aug) | 94.7% | 93.2% | 93.0% (Mar) | 88.3% (Q1), 88.7% (Q2) | 4,281 units through April; 25,756 under construction |
| Stellar figures are the simple average of month-end occupancy for the stabilized Village group in each period. Market figures are as published; Yardi Matrix and CoStar use different property universes and definitions, and neither is Stellar’s. Sources are listed below the closing note. | |||||
| Period | Occupied Village homes, start | Occupied Village homes, end | Net change | Phoenix net absorption (source) | Village share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar 2024 | 921 | 1,416 | +495 | 15,157 units (CoStar, Q4 2024 report) | About 3.3% |
| Calendar 2025 | 1,416 | 1,772 | +356 | 11,465 units (CoStar, Q4 2025 report) | About 3.1% |
| January to June 2026 | 1,772 | 2,236 | +464 | 9,414 units (CoStar, Q2 2026 report) | About 4.9% |
| Occupied homes are month-end counts across all Village communities, filling and stabilized, from property management system records. Village share is the net change divided by the CoStar metro figure as published in Kidder Mathews’ Phoenix multifamily report for the period. Villages had 3,358 delivered homes at June 2026, under 1 percent of the roughly 390,000 units Yardi Matrix tracks in Phoenix. | |||||
Closing
Phoenix spent 2024 and 2025 delivering apartments faster than any market in the country, and the finished Villages stayed full through it, ran at the market in the worst year and ahead of it after. The communities still filling took about one in twenty of the renters the whole metro absorbed in the first half of 2026. The record does not say Stellar was immune to the market; it says the market did not get to set the occupancy.
Results reflect these communities and this measurement period and are not a guarantee of future performance. Stellar figures are from monthly occupancy records in the property management system for build-to-rent communities under Stellar’s management during the period. Market figures: Yardi Matrix Phoenix Multifamily Market Reports, January 2025, June 2025 and June 2026 editions; CoStar data as published in the Kidder Mathews Phoenix Multifamily Market Reports, Q4 2024, Q4 2025 and Q2 2026. Owner information is not disclosed.
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